A Step Beyond Disease Surveillance
Using the power of prediction markets
for disease surveillance.
Reporting speed is one of the most import aspects of any surveillance program; for seasonal influenza even two weeks advance notice can have dramatic results on the effectiveness of vaccinations.
Although there are many existing strategies for gathering opinions about the future trends of infectious diseases, the resulting data are often difficult to interpret using standard epidemiological methods. Prediction markets, on the other hand, are well known for their ability to quickly collect and summarize information.
The Iowa Electronic Health Markets is a research project at the University of Iowa exploring the use of prediction markets as a tool for disease surveillance. By combining the strengths of prediction markets with the knowledge of our trading community from around the world, our hope is that these markets will report future infectious disease activity quickly enough to be clinically useful
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